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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1485

Elo1511

Nikita KrylovvsRobert WhittakerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:01

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Robert Whittaker

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsRobert Whittaker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Robert Whittaker wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Whittaker has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Robert Whittaker has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nikita Krylov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Robert Whittaker

Blue Corner

+70

(59%)

Vegas Odds

-124

(55%)

1485

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

latest

Robert WhittakerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 23

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricRobert Whittaker

4.36

Strikes / min

4.39

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.36

47%

Strike defense

59%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

0.73

53%

Takedown defense

82%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.7|Blue +25.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetRobert Whittaker

By target zone

34% acc · 41%

Head

49% acc · 100%

74% acc · 33%

Body

93% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

49% acc · 88%

Distance

49% acc · 94%

86% acc · 12%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Robert Whittaker rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control2:10

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 99

Sig Strikes

54 / 111

48.3%

Sig Str %

46.7%

57 / 106

Total Strikes

55 / 112

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

30%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Robert Whittaker	20 / 38	21 / 39	0 / 0
1	Nikita Krylov	20 / 40	26 / 47	3 / 5
2	Robert Whittaker	29 / 61	29 / 61	0 / 0
2	Nikita Krylov	28 / 52	28 / 52	0 / 1
3	Robert Whittaker	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0
3	Nikita Krylov	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 53% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -124 · never rewritten

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26