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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ariane Carnelossi won · DQ R2

Elo1527

Elo1477

Piera RodriguezvsAriane CarnelossiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ariane Carnelossi won

DQ · Round 2 · 3:16

Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Ariane Carnelossi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Piera Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Piera Rodriguez has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Piera Rodriguez

Red Corner

Ariane Carnelossi

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

160.02 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Piera RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Apr 23

vs Josefine Knutsson · Dec 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Aug 25

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 26

latest

Ariane CarnelossiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21

SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21

vs Loopy Godinez · May 22

SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25

KOvs Ketlen Souza · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Piera RodriguezMetricAriane Carnelossi

4.04

Strikes / min

2.63

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

53%

Strike defense

44%

4.04

TDs / 15 min

1.08

81%

Takedown defense

22%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Piera RodriguezAriane Carnelossi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -343.0|Blue +343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Piera RodriguezTargetAriane Carnelossi

By target zone

47% acc · 85%

Head

30% acc · 81%

75% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

25% acc · 6%

By position

37% acc · 55%

Distance

28% acc · 75%

85% acc · 28%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

88% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Piera Rodriguez rounds

even

Ariane Carnelossi rounds

Round 1Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:22

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:31

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 81

Sig Strikes

16 / 49

52.5%

Sig Str %

33.5%

51 / 102

Total Strikes

46 / 89

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ariane Carnelossi	10 / 33	32 / 63	0 / 0
1	Piera Rodriguez	19 / 50	24 / 60	1 / 1
2	Ariane Carnelossi	6 / 16	14 / 26	0 / 0
2	Piera Rodriguez	21 / 31	27 / 42	0 / 1

Piera Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights7