Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Daniel Kelly has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derek Brunson has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23 Daniel KellyL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricDaniel Kelly
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derek BrunsonDaniel Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +88.7|Blue -88.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derek BrunsonTargetDaniel Kelly
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
