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Women's Featherweight
3 Rounds
Felicia Spencer won · SUB R1
Elo1493
Elo1494
Felicia Spencer

Megan AndersonvsFelicia SpencerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Felicia Spencer won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:24

Model Prediction: Megan Anderson wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Felicia Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Megan Anderson at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Megan Anderson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Megan Anderson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Megan Anderson
Red Corner
VS
Felicia Spencer
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1493
Elo
1494
36
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'6"
182.88 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Megan Anderson
oldest →
L
vs Holly Holm · Jun 18
W
KOvs Cat Zingano · Dec 18
W
SUBvs Zarah Fairn · Oct 19
W
KOvs Norma Dumont · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Mar 21
latest
Felicia Spencer
oldest →
L
DECvs Cris Cyborg · Jul 19
W
KOvs Zarah Fairn · Feb 20
L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 20
L
vs Norma Dumont · May 21
W
KOvs Leah Letson · Nov 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Megan AndersonMetricFelicia Spencer
1.76
Strikes / min
3.21
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
4.54
37%
Strike defense
45%
0.52
TDs / 15 min
1.18
53%
Takedown defense
27%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.59evenly matched on net striking-1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes14.5 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Megan AndersonFelicia Spencer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Megan Anderson(6 fights)Felicia Spencer(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Megan AndersonTargetFelicia Spencer

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
13
76% acc · 59%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
9
100% acc · 41%

By position

2
50% acc · 67%
Distance
1
14% acc · 5%
1
50% acc · 33%
Clinch
8
89% acc · 36%
0
Ground
13
87% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Megan Anderson rounds
0
even
1
Felicia Spencer rounds
Round 1Felicia Spencer edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:02
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:46Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
22 / 31
50%
Sig Str %
70%
5 / 8
Total Strikes
25 / 34
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
2:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Felicia Spencer22 / 3125 / 341 / 21
1Megan Anderson3 / 65 / 80 / 00

Megan Anderson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6

Felicia Spencer

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6