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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brian Stann won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1352

Chris LebenvsBrian StannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 125: Resolution · Saturday, January 1, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Stann won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Chris Leben wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Brian Stann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Leben at -147 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Brian Stann is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Chris Leben has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Brian Stann

Blue Corner

-147

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+137

(42%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11

vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jul 13

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Brian StannL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jorge Santiago · May 11

SUBvs Chael Sonnen · Oct 11

KOvs Alessio Sakara · Apr 12

vs Michael Bisping · Sep 12

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Mar 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricBrian Stann

2.87

Strikes / min

3.28

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

52%

Strike defense

59%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.12

53%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenBrian Stann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Brian Stann(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetBrian Stann

By target zone

13% acc · 29%

Head

55% acc · 73%

60% acc · 43%

Body

88% acc · 23%

50% acc · 29%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

20% acc · 43%

Distance

53% acc · 33%

40% acc · 57%

Clinch

67% acc · 40%

Ground

62% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Brian Stann rounds

Round 1Brian Stann edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

3Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 25

Sig Strikes

30 / 50

28%

Sig Str %

60%

16 / 34

Total Strikes

48 / 69

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Stann	30 / 50	48 / 69	0 / 0	1
1	Chris Leben	7 / 25	16 / 34	0 / 2	0

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Brian Stann

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7