Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan Jouban
oldest →L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20 Matt Dwyer
oldest →L
KOvs Albert Tumenov · Oct 14W
KOvs William Patolino · Feb 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan JoubanMetricMatt Dwyer
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.90Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap-0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alan JoubanMatt Dwyer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Jouban(10 fights)Matt Dwyer(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +136.8|Blue -136.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alan JoubanTargetMatt Dwyer
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Dwyer edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:11
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Alan Jouban edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Alan Jouban edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:10
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
