Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mitch Gagnon has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16 Cole SmithL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Hunter Azure · Sep 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricCole Smith
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mitch GagnonCole Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Cole Smith(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -15.9|Blue +15.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mitch GagnonTargetCole Smith
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cole Smith edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:31
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:46Control
Round 2Cole Smith edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:23
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:30Control
Round 3Cole Smith edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:48Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
