Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roan Carneiro has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan LaFlare
oldest →L
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17L
KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18 Roan Carneiro
oldest →W
SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16W
vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan LaFlareMetricRoan Carneiro
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.03Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan LaFlareRoan Carneiro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +281.0|Blue -281.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan LaFlareTargetRoan Carneiro
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 2Ryan LaFlare edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control3:03
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:58
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
