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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Iasmin Lucindo won · S-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1525

Marina RodriguezvsIasmin LucindoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Iasmin Lucindo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarina Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsIasmin Lucindo: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Iasmin Lucindo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iasmin Lucindo at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Marina Rodriguez

Red Corner

Iasmin Lucindo

Blue Corner

+154

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1483

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marina RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Lemos · Nov 22

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Iasmin Lucindo

oldest →

vs Brogan Walker · Apr 23

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Aug 23

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 24

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 25

vs Angela Hill · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marina RodriguezMetricIasmin Lucindo

4.51

Strikes / min

3.22

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.28

61%

Takedown defense

68%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marina RodriguezIasmin Lucindo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)Iasmin Lucindo(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.6|Blue +41.6

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marina RodriguezTargetIasmin Lucindo

By target zone

31% acc · 85%

Head

34% acc · 63%

71% acc · 15%

Body

69% acc · 30%

0% acc

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

30% acc · 85%

Distance

40% acc · 90%

60% acc · 9%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marina Rodriguez rounds

even

Iasmin Lucindo rounds

Round 1Iasmin Lucindo edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:04

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:05

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 99

Sig Strikes

30 / 73

31.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

65 / 134

Total Strikes

55 / 104

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

100%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

4:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Iasmin Lucindo	11 / 33	20 / 42	1 / 1
1	Marina Rodriguez	5 / 25	18 / 38	0 / 0
2	Iasmin Lucindo	10 / 24	24 / 39	1 / 1
2	Marina Rodriguez	16 / 37	21 / 42	0 / 0
3	Iasmin Lucindo	9 / 16	11 / 23	1 / 2
3	Marina Rodriguez	12 / 37	26 / 54	1 / 1

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Iasmin Lucindo

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7