Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.49Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael JohnsonJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -38.1|Blue +38.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael JohnsonTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control0:15
50Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns0
Control0:19
54Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
