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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Josh Fremd won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1488

Josh FremdvsJamie PickettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Fremd won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Fremd wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Josh Fremd wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Fremd at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Pickett enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jamie Pickett has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jamie Pickett has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Fremd

Red Corner

Jamie Pickett

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1495

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh FremdL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Hernandez · Apr 22

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Oct 22

SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 23

vs Andre Petroski · Jul 24

latest

Jamie PickettL4 streak

oldest →

vs Joseph Holmes · Jan 22

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Feb 22

KOvs Denis Tiuliulin · Sep 22

SUBvs Bo Nickal · Mar 23

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh FremdMetricJamie Pickett

2.52

Strikes / min

2.65

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

47%

Strike defense

50%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

1.26

30%

Takedown defense

67%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh FremdJamie Pickett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Fremd(6 fights)Jamie Pickett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.9|Blue -6.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh FremdTargetJamie Pickett

By target zone

22% acc · 35%

Head

13% acc · 29%

56% acc · 32%

Body

38% acc · 43%

77% acc · 32%

Leg

80% acc · 29%

By position

34% acc · 71%

Distance

24% acc · 79%

55% acc · 19%

Clinch

43% acc · 21%

60% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Fremd rounds

even

Jamie Pickett rounds

Round 1Josh Fremd edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control2:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Josh Fremd edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:51

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 3Josh Fremd edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:53

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 80

Sig Strikes

14 / 52

37.7%

Sig Str %

27%

59 / 109

Total Strikes

26 / 67

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

7:15

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Pickett	4 / 18	8 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Fremd	11 / 29	23 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Jamie Pickett	5 / 15	7 / 17	1 / 1	0
2	Josh Fremd	13 / 31	17 / 35	0 / 1	2
3	Jamie Pickett	5 / 19	11 / 25	1 / 2	0
3	Josh Fremd	7 / 20	19 / 33	0 / 2	0

Josh Fremd

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Jamie Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9