Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andre Fialho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andre FialhoL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Miguel Baeza · Apr 22W
KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22L
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · May 23 Jake Matthews
oldest →W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andre FialhoMetricJake Matthews
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.96Δ 3.68 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Andre FialhoJake Matthews
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andre Fialho(7 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -427.0|Blue +427.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Andre FialhoTargetJake Matthews
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
