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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Carlos Condit won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1494

Elo1352

Carlos ConditvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 0:54

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Carlos Condit wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Condit at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Condit is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Martin Kampmann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Martin Kampmann has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1494

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos Condit

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

vs Max Griffin · Jul 21

latest

Martin Kampmann

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricMartin Kampmann

3.66

Strikes / min

3.22

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.86

38%

Takedown defense

78%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.2|Blue -141.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

37% acc · 68%

Head

32% acc · 83%

60% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 17%

68% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 81%

Distance

32% acc · 71%

71% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

67% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:18

5Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:47Control

Round 2Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:15

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:41

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 4Carlos Condit edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 235

Sig Strikes

35 / 97

46.3%

Sig Str %

40.5%

147 / 282

Total Strikes

43 / 108

0 / 2

TDs

6 / 15

TD %

40.8%

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

5:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	5 / 10	12 / 20	4 / 5	0
1	Carlos Condit	7 / 15	32 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Carlos Condit	34 / 91	37 / 94	0 / 1	0
2	Martin Kampmann	18 / 44	19 / 45	0 / 5	0
3	Martin Kampmann	8 / 35	8 / 35	1 / 3	0
3	Carlos Condit	44 / 104	63 / 123	0 / 0	2
4	Martin Kampmann	4 / 8	4 / 8	1 / 2	0
4	Carlos Condit	15 / 25	15 / 25	0 / 1	0

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8