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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Phil DavisvsAnthony JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPhil Davis: WrestlervsAnthony Johnson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Phil Davis

Red Corner

Anthony Johnson

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Phil Davis

oldest →

SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Anthony Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15

KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Phil DavisMetricAnthony Johnson

2.85

Strikes / min

3.25

1.33

Strikes absorbed / min

1.83

72%

Strike defense

60%

2.99

TDs / 15 min

2.43

72%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.52evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Phil DavisAnthony Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Phil Davis(10 fights)Anthony Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -567.0|Blue +567.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Phil DavisTargetAnthony Johnson

By target zone

9% acc · 43%

Head

27% acc · 69%

25% acc · 29%

Body

55% acc · 13%

75% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

13% acc · 76%

Distance

32% acc · 87%

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

60% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Phil Davis rounds

even

Anthony Johnson rounds

Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:32

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 127

Sig Strikes

45 / 132

15%

Sig Str %

34.3%

27 / 133

Total Strikes

47 / 134

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Johnson	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
1	Phil Davis	2 / 27	2 / 27	0 / 3
2	Anthony Johnson	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
2	Phil Davis	10 / 50	10 / 50	0 / 2
3	Anthony Johnson	14 / 42	16 / 44	0 / 1
3	Phil Davis	9 / 50	15 / 56	0 / 3

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11