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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Torrez Finney won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1461

Torrez FinneyvsRobert ValentinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Torrez Finney won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Torrez Finney wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Torrez Finney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Torrez Finney at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Torrez Finney has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Torrez Finney

Red Corner

Robert Valentin

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1493

Elo

1461

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Torrez Finney

oldest →

vs Jacob Malkoun · Jan 26

latest

Robert ValentinL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Loder · Aug 24

KOvs Ateba Gautier · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Torrez FinneyMetricRobert Valentin

1.78

Strikes / min

1.30

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.72

40%

Strike defense

33%

6.86

TDs / 15 min

0.59

75%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.56evenly matched on net striking-1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Torrez FinneyRobert Valentin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Torrez Finney(2 fights)Robert Valentin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.1|Blue -32.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Torrez FinneyTargetRobert Valentin

By target zone

40% acc · 50%

Head

56% acc · 78%

67% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

25% acc · 25%

Distance

26% acc · 22%

0% acc

Clinch

86% acc · 52%

100% acc · 75%

Ground

100% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Torrez Finney rounds

even

Robert Valentin rounds

Round 1Torrez Finney edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns5

Control4:34

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Torrez Finney edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:24

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control4:18

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

23 / 39

33.3%

Sig Str %

58%

17 / 35

Total Strikes

93 / 126

8 / 17

TDs

0 / 0

42.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:16

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Robert Valentin	6 / 9	15 / 22	0 / 0
1	Torrez Finney	0 / 1	7 / 16	5 / 8
2	Robert Valentin	3 / 6	13 / 17	0 / 0
2	Torrez Finney	4 / 4	9 / 14	1 / 3
3	Robert Valentin	14 / 24	65 / 87	0 / 0
3	Torrez Finney	0 / 3	1 / 5	2 / 6

Torrez Finney

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

Robert Valentin

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3