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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · Submission R3

Elo1557

Elo1507

Asu AlmabayevvsCharles JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

Submission · Round 3 · 3:33

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Asu Almabayev

Style matchupAsu Almabayev: WrestlervsCharles Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Johnson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Charles Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Asu Almabayev

Red Corner

Charles Johnson

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1557

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'4"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Asu AlmabayevW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

latest

Charles Johnson

oldest →

vs Sumudaerji · Oct 24

vs Ramazan Temirov · Mar 25

KOvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Aug 25

KOvs Alex Perez · Jan 26

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Asu AlmabayevMetricCharles Johnson

2.31

Strikes / min

4.77

1.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

53%

Strike defense

55%

4.46

TDs / 15 min

0.51

44%

Takedown defense

69%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.32evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Asu Almabayev(8 fights)Charles Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Asu AlmabayevTargetCharles Johnson

By target zone

44% acc · 54%

Head

26% acc · 24%

70% acc · 25%

Body

57% acc · 38%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

67% acc · 38%

By position

49% acc · 64%

Distance

44% acc · 86%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 14%

69% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Asu Almabayev rounds

even

Charles Johnson rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:19

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:26

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:03

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 51

Sig Strikes

21 / 45

61%

Sig Str %

45.3%

73 / 102

Total Strikes

32 / 57

6 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Johnson	4 / 11	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Asu Almabayev	8 / 17	23 / 36	3 / 4	0
2	Charles Johnson	15 / 30	19 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Asu Almabayev	14 / 27	26 / 40	2 / 4	0
3	Charles Johnson	2 / 4	5 / 7	0 / 0	1
3	Asu Almabayev	6 / 7	24 / 26	1 / 1	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 57% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Charles Johnson

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15