Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Melsik Baghdasaryan has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23 Melsik BaghdasaryanL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21L
SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23L
KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25L
SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tucker LutzMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.49Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tucker LutzMelsik Baghdasaryan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tucker Lutz(4 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -8.9|Blue +8.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tucker LutzTargetMelsik Baghdasaryan
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds
Round 1Tucker Lutz edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control2:56
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control0:35
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:48
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
