Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jared Rosholt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Jared Rosholt has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Jared RosholtW3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14W
KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15W
DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricJared Rosholt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonJared Rosholt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Jared Rosholt(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetJared Rosholt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
