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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R5

Elo1517

Elo1494

Max HollowayvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1517

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricDustin Poirier

6.91

Strikes / min

5.24

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.15

81%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

141

36% acc · 78%

Head

153

44% acc · 86%

78% acc · 22%

Body

75% acc · 10%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

88% acc · 4%

By position

167

39% acc · 92%

Distance

165

45% acc · 93%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

81% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 4Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:03

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 5Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

181 / 446

Sig Strikes

178 / 381

39.6%

Sig Str %

46.2%

208 / 473

Total Strikes

180 / 383

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 8

—

TD %

6.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	54 / 115	54 / 115	0 / 1	0
1	Max Holloway	30 / 72	30 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Poirier	31 / 74	31 / 74	0 / 1	0
2	Max Holloway	32 / 89	32 / 89	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Poirier	33 / 68	33 / 68	0 / 2	0
3	Max Holloway	53 / 111	61 / 119	0 / 0	0
4	Max Holloway	42 / 89	55 / 102	0 / 0	1
4	Dustin Poirier	34 / 64	36 / 66	1 / 4	0
5	Dustin Poirier	26 / 60	26 / 60	0 / 0	0
5	Max Holloway	24 / 85	30 / 91	0 / 0	0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31