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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R3

Elo1504

Elo1473

Kennedy NzechukwuvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:20

Style matchupKennedy Nzechukwu: Pressure fightervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Kennedy Nzechukwu is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Kennedy Nzechukwu has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kennedy Nzechukwu (53.5%).
Kennedy Nzechukwu has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1504

Elo

1473

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

210.82 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kennedy Nzechukwu

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Mar 24

KOvs Chris Barnett · Oct 24

KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Dec 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Dec 25

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kennedy NzechukwuMetricPaul Craig

4.96

Strikes / min

2.50

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

51%

Strike defense

43%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.43

80%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kennedy NzechukwuPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kennedy Nzechukwu(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.2|Blue -31.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kennedy NzechukwuTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

52% acc · 83%

Head

12% acc · 24%

88% acc · 18%

Body

65% acc · 52%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

31% acc · 28%

Distance

30% acc · 84%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 16%

76% acc · 55%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kennedy Nzechukwu rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Kennedy Nzechukwu edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:46

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Kennedy Nzechukwu edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:38

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 72

Sig Strikes

25 / 77

55.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

47 / 80

Total Strikes

31 / 83

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 16

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:22

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	5 / 18	5 / 18	1 / 8	1
1	Kennedy Nzechukwu	12 / 17	12 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Paul Craig	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 4	0
2	Kennedy Nzechukwu	20 / 36	22 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Paul Craig	9 / 30	15 / 36	0 / 4	1
3	Kennedy Nzechukwu	8 / 19	13 / 24	0 / 0	0

Kennedy Nzechukwu

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights15

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20