Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jamahal Hill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jamahal Hill is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Jamahal Hill has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jamahal Hill (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Jamahal HillL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Aug 22W
vs Glover Teixeira · Jan 23L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 24L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jan 25L
vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Jun 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricJamahal Hill
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54Δ 2.70 — meaningful gap+2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul CraigJamahal Hill
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Jamahal Hill(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -12.6|Blue +12.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul CraigTargetJamahal Hill
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Craig edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:03
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
