Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Lucas Rocha has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Clayton CarpenterL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25L
DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26 Lucas Rocha
oldest →W
vs Stewart Nicoll · Oct 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Clayton CarpenterMetricLucas Rocha
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.59Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Clayton CarpenterLucas Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)Lucas Rocha(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Clayton CarpenterTargetLucas Rocha
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Clayton Carpenter rounds
Round 1Clayton Carpenter edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control3:38
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Clayton Carpenter edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
