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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Josh Hokit won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1596

Elo1481

Josh HokitvsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Josh Hokit won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:09

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Derrick Lewis

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Derrick Lewis at +264 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Model Prediction: Josh Hokit wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Josh Hokit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Hokit enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Josh Hokit is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Josh Hokit has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Hokit

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+264

(27%)

1596

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh HokitW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Max Gimenis · Nov 25

KOvs Denzel Freeman · Jan 26

DECvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 26

latest

Derrick Lewis

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh HokitMetricDerrick Lewis

9.25

Strikes / min

2.46

6.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

44%

Strike defense

39%

3.89

TDs / 15 min

0.55

75%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.44Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap-0.11

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Hokit(4 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +114.2|Blue -114.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh HokitTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

72% acc · 86%

Head

14% acc · 71%

78% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

65% acc · 45%

Distance

12% acc · 57%

85% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 43%

82% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Hokit rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Josh Hokit edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns2

Control3:01

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Josh Hokit edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control1:03

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 117

Sig Strikes

7 / 40

73%

Sig Str %

18.5%

105 / 138

Total Strikes

8 / 41

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derrick Lewis	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Hokit	41 / 55	54 / 69	2 / 2	1
2	Derrick Lewis	6 / 35	7 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	Josh Hokit	45 / 62	51 / 69	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Josh Hokit

Odds

-340

Market-implied probability

Derrick Lewis 26%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Josh Hokit$129

Derrick Lewis (model pick · research)$364

26% market-implied · model 43% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Josh Hokit

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31