Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Condit is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18 Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricRory MacDonald
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carlos ConditRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +136.4|Blue -136.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carlos ConditTargetRory MacDonald
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:13Control
Round 2Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:31Control
Round 3Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control3:58
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
