Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Jorge MasvidalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricJorge Masvidal
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +33.2|Blue -33.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kamaru UsmanTargetJorge Masvidal
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:36
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control3:40
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control3:14
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control3:37
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control3:31
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
