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Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Dodson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1359

John DodsonvsZach MakovskyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsZach Makovsky: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zach Makovsky wins(55.2%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zach Makovsky at +550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zach Makovsky (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Zach Makovsky

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1493

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Zach MakovskyL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · Feb 14

vs Jussier Formiga · Aug 14

vs Tim Elliott · Feb 15

vs Joseph Benavidez · Feb 16

vs Dustin Ortiz · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricZach Makovsky

3.20

Strikes / min

1.94

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

61%

Strike defense

62%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

3.71

82%

Takedown defense

56%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonZach Makovsky

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Zach Makovsky(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.9|Blue -133.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetZach Makovsky

By target zone

17% acc · 42%

Head

25% acc · 38%

79% acc · 35%

Body

75% acc · 24%

88% acc · 23%

Leg

82% acc · 38%

By position

25% acc · 61%

Distance

40% acc · 84%

60% acc · 39%

Clinch

75% acc · 16%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Zach Makovsky rounds

Round 1John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:29

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:09

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 98

Sig Strikes

37 / 85

31.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

32 / 99

Total Strikes

39 / 87

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 17

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zach Makovsky	12 / 22	13 / 23	0 / 8
1	John Dodson	14 / 33	15 / 34	0 / 1
2	Zach Makovsky	13 / 25	14 / 26	0 / 4
2	John Dodson	10 / 28	10 / 28	1 / 1
3	Zach Makovsky	12 / 38	12 / 38	0 / 5
3	John Dodson	7 / 37	7 / 37	1 / 1

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Zach Makovsky

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7