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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R3

Elo1473

Elo1538

Paul CraigvsMagomed AnkalaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:59

Style matchupPaul Craig: Submission grapplervsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +550 American odds

+$550 profit

$650 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Paul Craig threatens submissions; Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Magomed Ankalaev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Magomed Ankalaev has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Craig

Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

Blue Corner

+550

(15%)

Vegas Odds

-800

(89%)

1473

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul CraigMetricMagomed Ankalaev

2.50

Strikes / min

3.65

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

43%

Strike defense

56%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

0.79

35%

Takedown defense

87%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul CraigMagomed Ankalaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Craig(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.1|Blue +65.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul CraigTargetMagomed Ankalaev

By target zone

7% acc · 11%

Head

51% acc · 61%

71% acc · 56%

Body

90% acc · 32%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

29% acc · 67%

Distance

45% acc · 34%

86% acc · 33%

Clinch

73% acc · 14%

0% acc

Ground

76% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Craig rounds

even

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:14

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:33

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 50

Sig Strikes

59 / 96

31.7%

Sig Str %

60.7%

34 / 70

Total Strikes

89 / 129

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

6:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Magomed Ankalaev	18 / 29	24 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Paul Craig	8 / 20	20 / 36	1 / 2	0
2	Magomed Ankalaev	15 / 27	23 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Paul Craig	9 / 20	13 / 24	1 / 2	0
3	Magomed Ankalaev	26 / 40	42 / 58	0 / 0	0
3	Paul Craig	1 / 10	1 / 10	0 / 3	1

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16