Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rinya Nakamura enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Rinya Nakamura has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya NakamuraW4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25 Muin Gafurov
oldest →L
vs John Castaneda · Jun 23L
SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24L
SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricMuin Gafurov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.55evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rinya NakamuraMuin Gafurov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +30.4|Blue -30.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rinya NakamuraTargetMuin Gafurov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Muin Gafurov edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Round 2Muin Gafurov edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control1:41
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
