Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Simpson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron Simpson
oldest →W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11W
vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12 Mark Munoz
oldest →L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13L
SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14L
SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15W
vs Luke Barnatt · May 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron SimpsonMetricMark Munoz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aaron SimpsonMark Munoz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Mark Munoz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +43.0|Blue -43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aaron SimpsonTargetMark Munoz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mark Munoz edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:23
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 2Mark Munoz edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns3
Control0:52
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 3Mark Munoz edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
