Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Ilia Topuria has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 23W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26 Ilia Topuria
oldest →W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Josh EmmettMetricIlia Topuria
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.85Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Josh EmmettIlia Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Josh Emmett(10 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -58.6|Blue +58.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Josh EmmettTargetIlia Topuria
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:00
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
56Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
1Knockdowns
Round 5Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:33Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
