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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · SUB R1

Elo1449

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Ismael BonfimvsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:48

Style matchupIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fightervsBenoit Saint Denis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ismael Bonfim is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Benoit Saint Denis has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Benoit Saint Denis is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Benoit Saint Denis threatens submissions; Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Ismael Bonfim has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Benoit Saint Denis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ismael Bonfim

Red Corner

Benoit Saint Denis

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1449

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismael BonfimL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jan 23

vs Vinc Pichel · May 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25

KOvs Chris Padilla · Nov 25

SUBvs Axel Sola · Jul 26

latest

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismael BonfimMetricBenoit Saint Denis

5.51

Strikes / min

5.62

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

65%

Strike defense

42%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

4.19

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ismael BonfimBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismael Bonfim(6 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -97.4|Blue +97.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismael BonfimTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

47% acc · 64%

Head

17% acc · 23%

100% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 77%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 57%

Distance

38% acc · 85%

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismael Bonfim rounds

even

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:10

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 24

Sig Strikes

13 / 33

58%

Sig Str %

39%

15 / 26

Total Strikes

35 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

28%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benoit Saint Denis	13 / 33	35 / 58	2 / 7	2
1	Ismael Bonfim	14 / 24	15 / 26	0 / 0	0

Ismael Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13