Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Melquizael Costa has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian Erosa
oldest →L
KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26 Melquizael Costa
oldest →W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricMelquizael Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.13Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julian ErosaMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -68.9|Blue +68.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julian ErosaTargetMelquizael Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:36
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns2
Control1:56
33Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control1:02
37Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
