Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Vince Morales has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raul Rosas Jr.W4 streak
oldest →L
vs Christian Rodriguez · Apr 23W
KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23W
SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24 Vince MoralesL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22L
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24L
vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25L
DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raul Rosas Jr.MetricVince Morales
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Raul Rosas Jr.Vince Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +90.1|Blue -90.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Raul Rosas Jr.TargetVince Morales
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:33
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 2Raul Rosas Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control3:28
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Raul Rosas Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control2:37
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
