Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Cezar Ferreira has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
- Cezar Ferreira has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19 Daniel Sarafian
oldest →W
SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13L
SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14W
KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14L
KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cezar FerreiraMetricDaniel Sarafian
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cezar FerreiraDaniel Sarafian
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -116.1|Blue +116.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cezar FerreiraTargetDaniel Sarafian
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:21
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:20Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control3:13
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 3Cezar Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control3:51
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
