Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kevin Casey has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Kevin Casey
oldest →L
KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15L
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricKevin Casey
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.35Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam AlveyKevin Casey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +72.8|Blue -72.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -165.0|Blue +165.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam AlveyTargetKevin Casey
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:34Control
Round 2Sam Alvey edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:32
Knockdowns2
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
