Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Gegard Mousasi has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan Henderson
oldest →L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16 Gegard MousasiW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan HendersonMetricGegard Mousasi
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.26Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dan HendersonGegard Mousasi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Henderson(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +104.0|Blue -104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dan HendersonTargetGegard Mousasi
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
