Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Johny Hendricks (53.5%).
- Matt Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Johny HendricksL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jul 16W
vs Hector Lombard · Feb 17L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 17L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Nov 17 Matt Brown
oldest →L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Johny HendricksMetricMatt Brown
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.50Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Johny HendricksMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Johny Hendricks(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -136.1|Blue +136.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Johny HendricksTargetMatt Brown
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns3
Control3:46
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns4
Control3:21
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Johny Hendricks edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:01
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
