Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Maness has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nate Maness has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Maness
oldest →W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20W
KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22L
SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22 Mateus MendoncaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Javid Basharat · Jan 23L
vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate ManessMetricMateus Mendonca
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.74Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-2.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate ManessMateus Mendonca
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Maness(7 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +19.1|Blue -19.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate ManessTargetMateus Mendonca
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nate Maness edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control1:31
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
