Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brian Ortega threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
- Clay Guida has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Clay GuidaL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22W
vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22L
vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricClay Guida
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.54Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian OrtegaClay Guida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian OrtegaTargetClay Guida
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Clay Guida edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
