Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22 Mike RioL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 13L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricMike Rio
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +143.7|Blue -143.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francisco TrinaldoTargetMike Rio
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:57
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:00Control
