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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1466

Francisco TrinaldovsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:12

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1496

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricKevin Lee

3.13

Strikes / min

3.88

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

3.18

60%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.5|Blue -30.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

37% acc · 76%

Head

25% acc · 60%

86% acc · 24%

Body

86% acc · 40%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 60%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

83% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

83% acc · 20%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:40

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 59

Sig Strikes

15 / 43

42.5%

Sig Str %

34.5%

30 / 65

Total Strikes

23 / 52

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

2:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	8 / 23	12 / 28	1 / 7	0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	17 / 41	22 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Kevin Lee	7 / 20	11 / 24	0 / 1	1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 1	0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19