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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Marc Diakiese won · S-DEC R3

Elo1531

Elo1500

Kaue FernandesvsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKaue Fernandes: Elusive strikervsMarc Diakiese: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kaue Fernandes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kaue Fernandes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Kaue Fernandes

Red Corner

Marc Diakiese

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1531

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kaue FernandesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mohammad Yahya · Aug 24

vs Guram Kutateladze · Mar 25

KOvs Harry Hardwick · Sep 25

latest

Marc DiakieseL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Alves · Nov 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22

vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kaue FernandesMetricMarc Diakiese

4.28

Strikes / min

2.54

1.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

62%

Strike defense

52%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

3.29

76%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.86Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kaue FernandesMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kaue Fernandes(4 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.6|Blue -31.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kaue FernandesTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

30% acc · 26%

Head

42% acc · 85%

62% acc · 35%

Body

40% acc · 15%

100% acc · 39%

Leg

0% acc

By position

55% acc · 91%

Distance

39% acc · 54%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

Ground

40% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kaue Fernandes rounds

even

Marc Diakiese rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Round 2Marc Diakiese edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:08

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 3Marc Diakiese edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:19

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 42

Sig Strikes

13 / 32

56%

Sig Str %

41%

67 / 92

Total Strikes

65 / 92

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 8

100%

TD %

52.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

8:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc Diakiese	4 / 10	14 / 21	1 / 1
1	Kaue Fernandes	6 / 13	17 / 25	1 / 1
2	Marc Diakiese	4 / 12	16 / 29	1 / 4
2	Kaue Fernandes	10 / 19	20 / 31	0 / 0
3	Marc Diakiese	5 / 10	35 / 42	1 / 3
3	Kaue Fernandes	7 / 10	30 / 36	0 / 0

Kaue Fernandes

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14