Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Watson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom WatsonL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13L
vs Thales Leites · Aug 13L
vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15L
vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15 Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom WatsonMetricSam Alvey
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom WatsonSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Watson(7 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -75.4|Blue +75.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.1|Blue +47.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom WatsonTargetSam Alvey
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Watson edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:33
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Tom Watson edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:30
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Sam Alvey edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:23
52Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
