Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cezar Ferreira has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19 CB Dollaway
oldest →L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cezar FerreiraMetricCB Dollaway
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cezar FerreiraCB Dollaway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -116.9|Blue +116.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cezar FerreiraTargetCB Dollaway
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
