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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

David Martinez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1545

Elo1457

David MartinezvsSaimon OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

David Martinez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:38

Style matchupDavid Martinez: Elusive strikervsSaimon Oliveira: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: David Martinez wins(78.8%)

Actual result: David Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Martinez at -770 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
David Martinez has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
David Martinez has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Saimon Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

David Martinez

Red Corner

Saimon Oliveira

Blue Corner

-770

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1545

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David MartinezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Sep 25

vs Marlon Vera · Feb 26

latest

Saimon OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Gravely · Jan 22

KOvs Daniel Marcos · Jan 23

SUBvs Luan Lacerda · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David MartinezMetricSaimon Oliveira

4.82

Strikes / min

2.62

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

69%

Strike defense

45%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.18

100%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.92Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

David MartinezSaimon Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

David Martinez(3 fights)Saimon Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.7|Blue -87.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David MartinezTargetSaimon Oliveira

By target zone

62% acc · 78%

Head

18% acc · 43%

50% acc · 4%

Body

75% acc · 43%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

33% acc · 14%

By position

56% acc · 52%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

0% acc

73% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

David Martinez rounds

even

Saimon Oliveira rounds

Round 1David Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:42

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 41

Sig Strikes

7 / 24

65%

Sig Str %

29%

28 / 42

Total Strikes

7 / 24

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saimon Oliveira	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	David Martinez	27 / 41	28 / 42	0 / 1	0

David Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Saimon Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4