Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demian Maia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
- Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Chris Weidman
oldest →W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricChris Weidman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demian MaiaChris Weidman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -92.1|Blue +92.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demian MaiaTargetChris Weidman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 3Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
