Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Asu Almabayev threatens submissions; CJ Vergara has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- CJ Vergara has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
CJ VergaraL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22W
KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23W
vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23L
KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24L
SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25 Asu AlmabayevW3 streak
oldest →W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25W
SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
CJ VergaraMetricAsu Almabayev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
CJ VergaraAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
CJ Vergara(8 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -70.1|Blue +70.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
CJ VergaraTargetAsu Almabayev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:14
16Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:14Control
Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:35Control
Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
