Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
- Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil Magny
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25 Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil MagnyMetricKelvin Gastelum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Neil MagnyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Magny(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +13.8|Blue -13.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -71.0|Blue +71.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Neil MagnyTargetKelvin Gastelum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Neil Magny edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control1:55
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 2Neil Magny edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control1:53
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
Round 3Neil Magny edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:04
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:56Control
Round 4Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:41Control
2Knockdowns
Round 5Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:26
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
