Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diyar Nurgozhay has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Tobias has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael TobiasNo prior UFC fights on record.
Diyar NurgozhayL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Mar 25L
SUBvs Uran Satybaldiev · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael TobiasMetricDiyar Nurgozhay
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-3.04Δ 4.75 — meaningful gap+1.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Tobias(1 fights)Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -14.2|Blue +14.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael TobiasTargetDiyar Nurgozhay
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Diyar Nurgozhay edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 2Diyar Nurgozhay edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:44
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 3Diyar Nurgozhay edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:47
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
