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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Petrino won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1499

Vitor PetrinovsSteven AsplundUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vitor Petrino won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVitor Petrino: WrestlervsSteven Asplund: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Vitor Petrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Asplund is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Vitor Petrino has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Steven Asplund has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino

Red Corner

Steven Asplund

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1543

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Pedro · Mar 24

SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25

latest

Steven Asplund

oldest →

KOvs Sean Sharaf · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricSteven Asplund

3.24

Strikes / min

10.05

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

51%

Strike defense

50%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

0.00

79%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap+3.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor PetrinoSteven Asplund

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Steven Asplund(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.7|Blue -43.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetSteven Asplund

By target zone

47% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 79%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 7%

88% acc · 16%

Leg

90% acc · 15%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Petrino rounds

even

Steven Asplund rounds

Round 1Steven Asplund edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:23

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:54

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 161

Sig Strikes

61 / 158

56.7%

Sig Str %

38%

92 / 162

Total Strikes

73 / 172

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steven Asplund	20 / 45	32 / 59	0 / 0
1	Vitor Petrino	19 / 37	19 / 38	0 / 3
2	Steven Asplund	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
2	Vitor Petrino	34 / 52	34 / 52	0 / 1
3	Steven Asplund	27 / 63	27 / 63	0 / 0
3	Vitor Petrino	39 / 72	39 / 72	0 / 0

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Steven Asplund

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights2